[Editor’s Note: This is the introduction to our 277th Weekly Transmission, originally delivered direct to the inbox of the GEM Crystal on January 4th, 2024. Below, a selection of members from the GEM Diamond community attempt to look into the crystal ball and offer proptech predictions for 2024. Many links included are to members-only articles, so won’t be accessible without an account already setup. You can read the full full article on our Crystal Platform.]

This year will be the wild wild west.

According to Sam Westelman:

In 2024, we should expect at least one big surprise. A top 10 prop tech goes bust. A three-way mega merger no one saw coming. The indictment of a major exec for white collar improprieties. A deep pocketed European or Chinese player makes an unimaginable acquisition. A music or entertainment mogul makes a strong real estate brand-play.

I’ll add on to that. A bombshell settlement of a yet-to-even-be-announced follow-on lawsuit resulting from the Stizer/Burnett hammer that dropped. Brokerages forgoing the age-old IDX practice–and sellers not calling bullsh*t. Office buildings being sold for pennies on the dollar. STR portfolios being banned entirely by Washington. Nothing will surprise me.

And, honestly, who knows what will happen in the public markets. There’s a glut of expected liquidity events, though ServiceTitan is gearing up for a 2024 IPO. The big mergers, such as the ❇️Lessen acquisition of SMS Assist❇️, will no doubt be hurt by the regulatory hurdles that are only getting worse with the scrapped Adobe-Figma merger. While deals will still happen, the “big” deals are going to face pressure … and significant risk. All of that will trickle down to venture. Lack of outcomes/returns means fewer investments made.

Below, GEM members circle the wagons and ready themselves for a quick-draw as they look ahead, sharing trends and predictions any real estate cowboy should consider in 2024.

PROPTECH TRENDS

SURGING ON OFFERS
Drew Meyers, Founder, Geek Estate

If you believe ❇️the endgame is an offers platform across every home in the country❇️, then you must believe that an offers platform will eventually gain steam on the adoption front. It’s going to be a banner year for those who have survived the carnage. I’m looking at you, Final Offer, Openn, Offer1, DecentRE Property Exchange (DPX), and Homwel.

THE DATA CRE COMPANIES WILL BUY
Kevin Shtofman, Head of Innovation, Cherre

As the world of sales and lease comps gets murkier, enterprising developers and acquirers will look to other data sources to augment their decision-making—permitting data, incentives data, and consumer spending data will be high-ROI subscriptions. I’ll be watching companies like BCI, Builty, and Incentifind in this arena, in addition to established players like Mastercard.

DEEP POCKETED EUROPEAN OR CHINESE PLAYER MAKES AN UNIMAGINABLE ACQUISITION
Sam Westelman

Let’s just throw a dart at this provocative headline. Here’s your appetizer. Australian powerhouse Raine & Horne sets its sights on the US market. They make a cash and stock offer for United or HomeSmart to get a piece of those juicy nationwide footprints. Boom! That puts them at 1%-ish of the US residential market, and primes them to add some global flair on these shores. And for the main course, Singaporean state sovereign fund Temasek Holdings thinks Place & Brivity look like tasty snacks. They leave the very capable management in place, but task them with dominating the retail brokerage space and being the next incarnation of NAR.

MAJOR M&A SHAKES AEC INDUSTRY
Stephen Del Percio, VP & Assistant General Counsel, AECOM

As federal infrastructure dollars continue to swell design and construction backlogs, publicly traded firms will realize the only way to convert them into actual revenue will be through leveraging each other’s resources.  I’ve been predicting this for several years now (and that I swore I was done making this prediction after 2023), but the conditions seem so ripe in 2024 that I’m doubling down once again.

There are 23 more entries included, click the link below to get to them…

Read the full list for free

Image generator: Dall-E 3
Prompt: Realistic modern buildings, such as a home, office, strip mall, with a stagecoach and longer exposure on a Toyo 45AII and Nikkor-w 150mm f/5.6 w/ Copal #0 and add a single family home